According to a report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), large parts of the United States are at either ‘high’ or ‘elevated’ risk of electricity shortfalls this summer. Notably, a large swath down the middle of the country, including the Midwest US region, faces a potential for insufficient operating reserves of electricity in normal peak conditions.
Electricity shortage in peak summer months
Furthermore, most of the states west of the Mississippi have a potential for insufficient operating reserves in above-normal conditions. With the beginning of the 2022 summer cooling season marked by some of the highest daily temperatures on record, the ‘above-normal’ conditions are less a possibility than a probability.
In affected areas, the power grid could be forced to impose rotating blackouts on some of the hottest days of the year. Most of the Eastern United States of America appears to have sufficient operating reserves to meet demand.
Lagging transition to 100% clean energy
The underlying causes of the electricity shortage include a lagging transition to 100% clean energy
The underlying causes of the electricity shortage include a lagging transition to 100% clean energy. While efforts continue to stimulate the next generation of renewable technologies, the development is not keeping up with the growing demand for electricity.
Some resources necessary to maintain sufficient electricity supplies, including natural gas and carbon-based fuels, have been targeted by activist interest groups. Beyond the recent shutdown of coal and nuclear plants, factors in the shortage include planned maintenance and forced outages, as well as low wind conditions.
Implementing new technologies
Utility companies are caught in the middle, seeking to satisfy consumer demand, while implementing new technologies, such as next-generation nuclear, carbon and direct air capture, energy storage, hydrogen, geothermal, and other technologies.
In the words of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who stated “However, the situation deals (not) in ideology, (but) in reality.”
NERC’s Annual Reliability Assessment
NERC’s Annual Reliability Assessment covers four months (June through September) and evaluates electricity generation resources, transmission system adequacy, and energy sufficiency, in order to meet projected summer peak demand and operating reserves. It identifies potential reliability issues of interest and regional topics of concern.
In the U.S., the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) faces capacity shortfalls in its North and Central areas, resulting in a high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions. Across the MISO, peak demand projections have increased by 1.7% since last summer, as normal demand patterns resume after the COVID-19 pandemic. Another problem is 2.3% less generation capacity when compared to the summer of 2021.
In Canada, the anticipated resource capacity in Saskatchewan will be strained to meet peak demand projections, which have increased 7.5% since 2021.
Drought conditions contribute to electricity shortage
Drought conditions also contribute to the problem, affecting wide areas of North America
Drought conditions also contribute to the problem, affecting wide areas of North America and challenging electricity supplies, and having potential impacts on demand. Energy output from hydro-generators throughout most of the Western United States of America is affected by widespread drought and below-normal snowpack, according to NERC.
Suppliers of electricity from coal-fired generators are having difficulty obtaining fuel and non-fuel consumables, as supply chains are stressed.
Electricity suppliers at the risk of cyber security threats
Furthermore, electricity is among the critical infrastructure sectors at risk of cyber security threats from Russia and other potential actors, amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
Energy efficiency goals, such as those undertaken by the HVAC industry’s transition to electric heat pumps, can contribute to minimizing the need for electricity, especially helpful during a shortage.
